To invade Ukraine, Russia needs a fictitious pretext and public chaos

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Russia was plotting a false flag special operation in Donbas to create a pretext for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, literally: «Our intelligence community has developed information … that Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for an invasion, including through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine.»
Jake Sullivan claims that the current plan is similar in its concept to that used in 2014.  More details will be announced within 24 hours.
But is it worth waiting these 24 hours?  I’ll explain what I mean.

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The thing is that what Jake Sullivan has been talking about has been described periodically and in sufficient detail by Ukrainian open source platforms, as well as by me, for the past eight years. All these scenarios, methods, concepts, and strategy of hybrid provocations, with regular debunking of various types of Russian psyops against Ukraine…
It is more than obvious that l, for successfully invading Ukraine, Russia will need more than a notorious casus belli — they also need to ensure the corresponding socio-political climate, which is chaos.
If we talk about casus belli, back in December 2021, it became obvious that the Kremlin puppets in the occupied part of Donbas are preparing a provocation involving chemical weapons, which would create a pretext for military incursion.
As for the chaos of Ukraine, Russia could use all the potential of its assets operating within the country and at the same time launch all the scenarios that from time to time sow chaos in the Ukrainian society.
In this case, I mean the simultaneous launch of the «Montenegrin scenario» through a large-scale intelligence network run by the ROC, anti-vaccination movement, utility tariff rallies, and, of course, provocations of a political nature, directed against both the central government and local authorities.
So there’s no need to wait 24 hours if Russia’s strategy is more than obvious so any manifestation of such scenarios must be stopped in its roots.  Otherwise, a favorable basis will swiftly be created to turn internal chaos into a casus belli and direct invasion.  But when one of the components fails, the mechanism will generally stall.

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