Has Russia launched a flywheel of hybrid provocations?

Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) has reported that in the Russian-occupied Horlivka, where containers with ammonia had been earlier delivered  to PJSC Concern Stirol, a leak of toxic substances occurred. GUR warns that Russia may use the said emergency situation as a pretext to invade Ukraine.

ГУР МО.jpg

Let me remind you that back in December 2021 in my piece entitled «Kremlin puppets in Donbas plotting casus belli involving chemical weapons»l,» I noted that chemical arms could become an element of hybrid  provocation, which would not only discredit Ukraine, but also serve as a pretext for yet another act of  aggression on the part of Russia.
And just yesterday, in the article «Russia needs fictitious pretext and public chaos to invade Ukraine,» I wrote that the provocation as such would have a weak effect because, to increase  the efficiency of the intervention, the aggressor needs to destabilize the socio-political situation in Ukraine.
And here comes today’s message from the GUR.  Russia, it seems, is playing by a scenario that’s quite predictable.  But it is difficult to say whether this predictability and obviousness will stop Moscow in its tracks.  After all, their actions have long ceased to be adequate.
The invaders’  next step would be to not only accuse the Ukrainian authorities of a chemical attack on the people of Donbas, but also sharply and simultaneously undermine political stability in Ukraine.

Powered by WPeMatico